Stocks to buy

Rivian Stock Can Double After a Major Correction

The first few months of 2022 was certainly not the best time to make an entry into growth stocks like Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) stock. There are dozens of high-flying names that have plunged by over 50% in the last five months.

The correction exposes the companies with weak fundamentals. At the same time, it presents an opportunity to accumulate quality stocks.

I believe that Rivian is among the names that can be considered for long-term value creation. After a big sell-off from highs, it’s likely that RIVN stock will double in the next 24 months. Considering the global economic uncertainties, I would be more than happy with these returns.

Ticker Company Current Price
RIVN Rivian Automotive, Inc. $28.36

Positioned For Robust Growth

An important point to note is that Rivian reported cash and equivalents of $17 billion as of March. The company has ample financial flexibility to pursue aggressive growth.

Rivian is already looking at ramping up production capacity between Normal and Georgia plans to 600,000 vehicles annually. This will position Rivian to cater to incremental demand in the next few years.

Lucid (NASDAQ:LCID) stock was punished by investors when the company lowered the production guidance for 2022. Rivian has reaffirmed the production guidance for 25,000 vehicles for 2022. With a swelling order backlog and capacity enhancement, the production guidance is likely to be robust for 2023 and beyond.

Rivian already had 90,000 pre-orders for R1 from the U.S. and Canada. Additionally, the company has an order backlog of 100,000 electric delivery vans from Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).

In February 2021, it was reported that Rivian is planning an electric vehicle plant in Europe. Given the financial flexibility, it’s likely that expansion into Europe is coming relatively soon. This is another reason to believe that pre-orders for R1 can swell.

Europe is focused on reducing energy dependence on Russia. It might therefore be the right time to make inroads into the big market.

Back in 2020, Rivian CEO opined that “We wouldn’t be serious about building a car company if we weren’t thinking about China and Europe as important markets long term.”

It seems likely that Rivian will be targeting major expansion in Europe and China in the next two to three years. This will ensure healthy growth in vehicle deliveries.

Cash Burn Discounted in RIVN Stock

A key concern for early-stage companies like Lucid and Rivian is the potential cash burn. In general, it translates into an extended period of equity dilution.

For Rivian, the company has guided for $7 billion in cash burn for 2022 (EBITDA and capital expenditure). Of course, the cash buffer of $17 billion implies that the company has liquidity for the next 18 to 24 months.

However, Morgan Stanley believes that Rivian will reach EBITDA breakeven by 2026. It’s therefore likely that further equity dilution is on the cards.

Having said that, RIVN stock has already witnessed a deep correction. After bottoming out at $19.30, the stock is already up 37% over the last month. The concerns seem to be largely discounted in the valuation.

Additionally, the markets are likely to focus on deliveries growth and vehicle margin. The Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) example clearly indicates that there is potential for robust cash flows with operating leverage.

Once the electric vehicle industry overcomes inflation and supply chain headwinds, RIVN stock will trend higher.

Concluding Views

The electric delivery van industry is still at an early growth stage. Rivian seems well positioned to make bigger inroads. At the same time, the company has plans for big markets like the United States, Europe and China. With multi-year industry tailwinds, the outlook is bright.

It clearly seems to be a bear market for growth stocks. There tends to be overreactions on the downside. RIVN stock was oversold around $20 levels. However, even after a big rally over the last month, the stock seems attractive from a long-term perspective. I would bet on RIVN stock doubling from current levels in the next 24 months.

On the date of publication, Faisal Humayun did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

Faisal Humayun is a senior research analyst with 12 years of industry experience in the field of credit research, equity research and financial modeling. Faisal has authored over 1,500 stock specific articles with focus on the technology, energy and commodities sector.

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