BlackBerry (NYSE:BB) has become a favorite among investors. In fact, BB stock has a very loyal group of bulls that continue to wait for the stock to take off. A company that was once on the top of the smartphone world has found itself continually reinventing its business model.
That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but it’s the reality. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) topped BlackBerry for the smartphone throne and has yet to relinquish its position. That forced BlackBerry to scrap its weaknesses and embrace its strengths.
Despite its improvements — and it has improved — Wall Street has not rewarded those who have stuck by the stock over the years. Or at least, they haven’t been rewarded in the way that many were hoping for.
The recent spike in BB stock does have it higher by 79% over the past five years. While that is impressive, it lags the S&P 500, which is up about 105% in the same span. Over the last 10 years, the disparity is even more pronounced, with the index up roughly 235% vs. BlackBerry’s decline of 57%.
That said, BlackBerry does have more impressive one-year and three-year returns.
Breaking Down BlackBerry
In late June, BlackBerry reported its fiscal first-quarter results. A loss of 5 cents per share was in line with expectations, while revenue of $174 million beat analysts’ expectations by about $3 million. The downside to revenue is that it declined 15.5% year over year.
Therein lies the main problem: revenue growth.
Many companies are finding themselves in one of two positions (and BlackBerry is in neither).
Companies like Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU), Snap (NYSE:SNAP), Pinterest (NYSE:PINS) and others saw an acceleration in business during the pandemic and are continuing to grow off that higher base.
Other companies like Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL), Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ:CZR) and Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB) are seeing a huge rebound in sales. That comes as we witness an explosive reopening economy in the U.S.
For BlackBerry though, it’s not benefiting from either tailwind. When we look at consensus expectations, it’s more of the same. Analysts expect revenue to decline roughly 15% this year. That’s alongside a call for earnings to flip from a profit of 18 cents a share last year to a loss of 13 cents a share this year.
BB stock could always flip the script and surprise everybody. Plenty of entities do it all the time. As it stands though, what’s the catalyst to chase this one?
Why do I want to pay 67x last year’s earnings for a company that will see a decline this year? Why do I want to pay 150x next year’s earnings forecast of 8 cents per share?
BlackBerry does have an impressive market share when it comes to the auto market. Its QNX software is embedded in more than 175 million vehicles. But that progress isn’t acting as a catalyst at the moment.
Trading BB Stock
With its low stock price, BB stock has become a favorite among traders. Regardless of how we classify it — Reddit traders, meme stocks, day traders, etc. — it’s hard to deny the interest in BlackBerry this year in this manner.
As AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC), GameStop (NYSE:GME) and others rip higher, this stock has also caught periods of momentum.
After earnings, shares flirted with a big breakdown below $12.13. At least, it would be a big breakdown for me. It ended up holding support — with a doji candle no less — then went daily-up on Monday (June 28).
While that’s great and all, we still have a stock below its short-term moving averages. If it can’t reclaim the 10-day and 21-day moving averages, it will remain vulnerable. Below its post-earnings low puts the 50-day moving average and $10 level in play.
Above the 21-day moving average and a squeeze up to $15-plus is certainly possible.
The Bottom Line
Don’t get the wrong idea about me and BB stock: I don’t have any sort of ill-will toward it.
I used to attend the auto shows for press coverage, as I have a huge passion and interest in autonomous vehicles. In 2018, I remember listening to CEO John Chen give a keynote presentation on BlackBerry’s QNX system and specifically, its cyber-security product, Jarvis. I was bulled up and optimistic. This was BlackBerry’s comeback moment!
That was Jan. 18, 2018 and BB stock is down 4% from that day.
Is BlackBerry doomed? I wouldn’t say that. It still has potential, but I am done expecting it at this time. There are better ways to play the auto space, even through non-automotive stocks.
On the date of publication, Bret Kenwell held a long position in ROKU and PINS. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Bret Kenwell is the manager and author of Future Blue Chips and is on Twitter @BretKenwell.